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Question of the Week

Inspired by a video clip posted by Ro, I’m moved to examine the following question:

Right now, at this moment, what would you say is the percentage chance that Sarah Palin will become President of the United States in the next four years?

I’m going with 5%. That figure puts the election at about 50/50, and gives McCain a 90% chance of surviving his first term.

What do you think?

This entry was posted on Monday, September 15th, 2008 at 9:14 am and is filed under Math, Politics, Predictions, Question. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

One Response to “Question of the Week”

  1. Neel Mehta Says:
    September 15th, 2008 at 8:33 pm

    5 percent is a pretty good answer. But the more interesting question is whether Sarah Palin will ever become President by order of succession. Then you can factor in the prospect of McCain’s re-election.

    Barack Obama strikes me as the kind of person who would not run again in 2012 if he loses in 2008. Hillary Clinton, however, will probably give it another shot, and I wonder if she will benefit from 4 years of America getting used to seeing a woman as VP. If she does, then she’ll be the (very beatable) Democratic candidate.

    I’m no actuary, but I’d imagine McCain’s chances of survival for a second term drop considerably. Palin’s percentage could triple.

    Furthermore, you could ask what her chances are to ever become President, by succession or election. Maybe up to 25 percent? I’m not very good at this; right now I’m just comfortable with saying “better chances than Joe Lieberman.”

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